Weekly Update

The EURUSD was very bearish this week because of all the week economic data that came out of Europe. 

Fundamentals

The German Consumer Confidence was much lower than expected coming out at 2.1 apposed to the forecast of 3.5. The German Prelim CPI came out hotter than expected but did not help the EURUSD much. To top all it all of the USD Consumer Confidence Index came out much better than expected, and the Euro Consumer Confidence came out lower than expected pushing the EURUSD down further. The US GDP was lower than expected but better than the previous data and the NFP was better than expected but is still not good for the USD. The Unemployment Rate was worse than expected pushing the EURUSD up after the first drop.

Trading

There is a strong support at 1.5540 – 1.5530. If it makes a clean break of 1.5520 it can easily go to 1.5480 and lower.

There was two longs I took. I entered at 1.5705 and 1.5590. My trades are in drawdown but I will hold them for now. I am expecting to see the EURUSD going to 1.5750-1.5800 next week.

Happy Trading!!!!

Have a great weekend.

Adriaan

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August 2, 2008 at 12:40 pm Leave a comment

Market Timing PART II

By FX Insights

Market Timing PART II

THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF MARKET TIMING PART I

Seasonal Pattern Timing

At certain times of the year, the euro will naturally be stronger than the dollar and vice versa. For the past several years, the EUR/USD has followed certain seasonal patterns we’ve been able to recognize. This does not mean these seasonal patterns will always exist, as the market is ever changing with the fundamentals, but thus far, these patterns have held pretty consistent. 

January/February – typically this is a lower time in terms of volatility. It will be a give and take for the euro and dollar. Of course, strong retail and consumer data based on holiday sales would certainly be a factor that would help the dollar in January. 

Late winter/spring – now as we roll into later February, the euro will start to make its move against the dollar. During the spring the EUR/USD can move topside anywhere from 300-600 pips, sometimes even more, depending on market fundamentals of course. And this would present a good opportunity to long the euro on a swing basis to take a good haul of pips. 

Summer trading – with most of Europe taking a 7-week holiday, the market will tend to slow down as volatility drops. During the summer you’ll see a good deal of ranging. So if you track EUR/USD price action to help establish a range, you can do some excellent intraday trading during the summer season. 
During the months of June and July, the dollar has been known to strengthen against the euro. The market has been known to correct down several hundreds pips leading into the slower summer session. Likewise, late summer/early fall can be a time of strength for the dollar. 

Fall/Winter – as we roll into October and throughout the rest of the fourth quarter, the euro has shown pattern tendency to make big gains on the dollar, and will usually finish the year strong against the dollar. Now this year is a little different because the dollar has been fundamentally weak since the spring and the market has been selling dollars and buying euros for most of the year. 

That being said, patterns have show the EUR/USD will start making upward moves mid to late October. During the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the market “gives thanks” by pummeling the dollar and pushing the euro up. During the U.S. Christmas holiday, our typical “gift” is more dollar selling and strong upwards gains for the EUR/USD. 

So unless there are fundamental changes for the U.S., I expect the euro to finish out this year strong against the dollar and to start 2008 in a position of strength, as the housing market will continue to weigh on dollar gains, and of course the possibility of more Fed cuts and the ECB either holds or raises interest rates.

Fundamental Timing

Another reason why it’s important to have a good understanding of the market fundamentals is so that you know when to be in and when not to be in the market. Certain times of the year certain pieces of fundamental data will have more of an impact on the market. 

For example, in the first part of the year, we told you that the U.S. employment situation would not be so much of a market-moving factor. So if you remember, there were several NFP’s that saw little market movement because the market was not focused on the U.S. job situation. Then, in the beginning of summer we told you to start watching the U.S. jobs situation and that we’d see increased volatility for NFP. 

Sure enough, late this summer the employment situation came into focus and the market reacted with a great degree of volatility to the fundamentals of the jobs market. 

Another example… ISM is a very important report, but the market is reacting to it on a small-scale because overall the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is chugging along. But when we start seeing signs of manufacturing slow downs, you can be assured the market will react to ISM to the degree it does with NFP. 

Back in March of this year we alerted our FXI members that the subprime issue was about to surface and that our market would start killing the dollar as a result. But it wasn’t until later in the spring and summer that the market started its reaction to subprime/housing. Now the U.S. housing situation is still in play and will be in play for the months to come. I do not believe we’ve seen the worst of the housing debacle and it will surely get worse before it gets better. 

So based on the fact the market is heavily reacting to U.S. housing and jobs data, you’ll want to time your trades accordingly as you can be assured the market is going to move. 

In Conclusion

This pretty much covers the timing aspect of trading. The best way to learn how to time your trades is to watch and track EUR/USD price action as it relates to the day of the week, which fundamentals are in play, what season of the year we’re in, what the time of the day is, etc. I think the only way to really learn this stuff is to just watch the market, the price action and then tie that into the timing aspect. 

Again, this market is ever changing, ever moving, and the fundamentals that drive the market can certainly vary. Of course one thing that will never change is how the market reacts to interest rates and interest rate policy – that you can be assured of. 

Hopefully this will help paint a clearer picture of our market. If you have any questions, let me know.

August 2, 2008 at 9:41 am Leave a comment

Market Timing PART I

By FX Insights

Market Timing PART I

This week in the chat the trade strategy of “market timing” was brought up. I think the timing of trades is incredibly important because the market will typically do certain things at certain times of the day, week, month, and quarter, in addition to seasonal timing patterns.

Of course there are no absolutes when it comes to timing in the market as it relates to moves with the EUR/USD, but this pair has shown fairly consistent patterns that I’ve recognized after watching the pair 24/6 for the past year. 
While we cannot know exactly when a central bank, big institution, or hedge fund is going to throw a couple hundred million or billion to into the market, which will shake things up, the following factors I believe should be considered when placing trades, especially if they are intraday trades as opposed to swing trades. 

Before we dig into the market timing thing, go into this knowing that there’s a high probability that when you place a trade, especially in lower volatility times, your broker is going to take the opposite side of the trade to either stop you out (if you use stops) or to shake you out of the trade and cause you to close for a loss. Brokers can and do manipulate the price – so when you place a trade you will notice the market immediately jumps the opposite direction of your trade – it’s pure broker manipulation and just part of the game. 

Same situation with stops, if you’ve ever used them, I’m sure you can recall numerous times when the market hit your stop loss, it has turned around, and gone the other way. Because a lot of retail traders are using the same tech indicators, they are placing stops in the same general areas, which make it easy for brokers to manipulate the price just enough to trigger stops on those technical levels.

NOTE: The following info is strictly geared towards market timing patterns of the EUR/USD.

Market Timeframes

The market re-opens for the day, so-to-speak at 5:00 pm eastern time, so we’ll start here going forward. When the market “re-opens” for the day, the liquidity is very low. The beauty of these times is that the market will carve out a range that is perfect for intraday trading, banking 5, 10, 15 pips per trade. If you track EUR/USD price action (30min EUR/USD price opens), it will be easy to establish a range during these low liquidity times… 

5:00 pm to 8:00 pm eastern – Europe, London, and Tokyo are all closed, meaning the market is thin. In most cases, a fairly established range is carved out during this timeframe. Typically, the EUR/USD will stay where it’s at when NY closed, and then tend to drift upwards going into the Tokyo session. We have observed that the typical pattern is for the EUR/USD to slightly move higher – not an absolute, just a common tendency. 

8:00 pm to Midnight eastern – Tokyo is open, however, the market tends to stay thin the first 4 hours of the Tokyo session. Now most times of the year, the market will stay in a range during this timeframe, but there are certain times of the year that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will take actions to manipulate the market, typically to depreciate the yen for exporting reasons. In addition, the BOJ will diversify their FX reserves at certain times of the year. These actions will cause across-the-board movements in the market. I’ve observed that the EUR/USD will make its biggest moves during the Tokyo session in the late winter and early spring periods. And those big moves usually start between 9:00 pm and 11:00 pm eastern and can keep the market moving right up until Europe/UK opens. 

2:45 pm and 3:45 pm TOKYO TIME – please note the following pattern happens at 2:45 and 3:45 pm TOKYO TIME, not eastern… For many, many months I observed a EUR/USD pattern that would happen during Tokyo’s afternoon session… typically around 2:45 pm Tokyo time, the EUR/USD would make a quick spike up of about 10-20 pips, and then sometimes it will do the same around 3:45 pm Tokyo time, give or take a few minutes… why this happens, I have no idea. I have no clue what goes on in Tokyo at those times to make the EUR/USD jump, but it’s been a consistent occurrence, and I have benefited from those moves over and over again. 

Final 10-20 minutes of Tokyo – during the final moments of Tokyo, traders will be squaring their books for the day, so it is common to see the market move when books are squared. 

2:00 am to 8:00 am eastern – At 2:00 am Frankfurt/Berlin open. At 3:00 am London opens. When Frankfurt and London open, liquidity floods into the market and the market will move, you can be assured of this. The following are some EUR/USD patterns I’ve noticed during this timeframe… many times the market will bring down the EUR/USD anywhere from 20 to 80 pips, especially during market periods of USD strength. So, if you’ve taken a EUR/USD short at the top of the Tokyo range, waiting for Europe/UK to come into play to close your short might be a good idea as it will allow you to close your trade for more pips.

Now, during times of EUR strength, like we’ve seen over the past few weeks, Europe/UK will only bring the EUR/USD down a few pips or none at all, and then within 2-4 hours into those sessions, you’ll see the market moving the EUR/USD up. If you recognize the market not bringing down the EUR/USD in the earlier part of the Europe/UK session, but maintaining top-of-range levels, or moving it up, this is a pretty good indicator the EUR/USD will overall go up during the trade day… 

Finally, between 4:00 am and 7:00 am, it is common to see decent EUR/USD movement of anywhere from 30-70 pips or more, depending on market conditions of course. The 2:00 am to 8:00 am eastern timeframe by far offers some of the highest volatility the market will see and great opportunities to bank pips and ROI. 

8:00 am to 5:00 pm eastern – while waiting for NY to open, the market will typically slow down the pace, especially if big economic data is going to be released. Most potentially market-moving data is released at 8:30 am and or 10:00 am eastern, and we all know what happens when those big reports come out… 

It’s important to note two specific time frames during the NY session…
11:00 am eastern – Europe closes… the last 10 minutes of Europe’s session can be volatile as they close out their books for the day. EUR/USD movements during this timeframe can be anywhere from 10 to 40 pips. 
Noon eastern – London closes… as with Europe, London’s last 10 minutes can be volatile as they close our their books for the day. 

So, if the market took the EUR/USD up during the earlier part of the NY session, patterns show us the euro will stay up throughout the rest of the session. And then specifically, you can see the EUR/USD make additional moves at 1:00 pm and 3:00 pm eastern time. 

After 3:00 pm eastern, the market usually levels off and will fall into a range right until the market “closes” and then “reopens” at 5:00 pm eastern. 
Of course, the EUR/USD should be closely watched at 9:30 am eastern when Wall St. opens. Because of the correlation to equities, bonds, gold, and oil, we can see the EUR/USD move up or down accordingly when Wall St. opens. 

Days of the Week Timing

EUR/USD patterns have shown us that this pair is likely to make either its high or low for the week on Monday or Friday. Sometimes the Sunday into Monday session, the EUR/USD will drop. Friday’s tend to be a very strong day for the euro – I’ve observed the EUR/USD make some of the biggest topside gains on Fridays – I’ve seen the euro finish strong on Fridays much more than the dollar has. 

As far as pip movements go, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are some of the more volatile days of the week. Thursdays typically tend to be more on the rangy side as the market waits for big reports that will be released on Friday.

EUR/USD Patterns at the End of a Quarter

We stressed this at the end of the 3rd quarter, and I cannot stress this enough – you better know when a quarter ends! At the end of the 3rd quarter we warned you the market would make a big move and it would move the EUR/USD up at least 100 pips, if not more – it did exactly this. At the end of a quarter, the volatility goes through the roof as banks, institutions, hedge funds, and traders square their books, close out trades, take profits, set-up trades for the next quarter, etc. Trillions of dollars are flowing in and out of the market the last day of the quarter and the market goes nuts. 

So far, there has never been a quarter that ended that I did not see the euro win the day. In my trading career, which hasn’t been too terribly long, the euro always finished the quarter by crushing the dollar.

August 2, 2008 at 9:39 am Leave a comment

Update

As per my previous post, price action patterns proved to be right as we dropped from the 1.5580 level to a current low or 1.5510…

My NFP forecast was a minimum job loss of -28K to -50K, the data printed at -51K, last month’s was revised up and the unemployment rate ticked up to a 4-year high at 5.7%.

Watch for the 0930 EST money flows and the 1000 EST data… I’m still look at the bottom in the 1.5480-1.5460 level and I will likely be buying down there should we see those levels.

There’s a lot of time left today, be careful…

August 1, 2008 at 2:40 pm 2 comments

Trade Team Call UPDATE (7/29/08 Call)

By FX Insights

To subscribe to the signal with 100% success rate click here.

Trade Team Call UPDATE (7/29/08 Call)

At 10:12 a.m. EST the FXI Trade Team issued a EUR/USD trade call to buy EUR/USD between 1.5615 and 1.5590, then buying again at 1.5570.

The FXI Team Call was officially closed at 3:02 a.m. EST as the EUR/USD reached the price of 1.5631. 

Minimum Pips Gained From Each Buy Level Traded: 

1.5610 to 1.5631 = 21 Pips
1.5590 to 1.5631 = 41 Pips
1.5570 to 1.5631 = 61 Pips

Total minimum pips gained: 123 Pips

Again this call is closed and paid out with full profits thus making all FXI calls ever issued 100% profitible and paid-out.

-FX Insights

August 1, 2008 at 5:05 am Leave a comment

Understanding Drawdown/Market Drops Part II

By FX Insights

Understanding Drawdown/Market Drops Part II

2. What causes the EUR/USD to drop or correct?

Profit taking – profit taking is one of the biggest factors that account for drops in the market. When a large bank or institution closes a multi-million or multi-billion dollar entry, this will have an adverse affect on the market, and cause the market to de-value the price of the currency based on the liquidation of that position. A profit taker literally takes money out of the market – somebody had to loose in order for that trader to win. 

Example: suppose you and I bet on a football game… you bet me $100 that the Packers would beat the Giants in the NFC playoff game… we both put our $100 dollars in a bowl… at the end of the game the winner would not only get his $100 back, but would get an additional $100… game’s over, Packers are victorious, and you win the bet, so not only do you get your $100 back, you get my $100 and all of the cash in the bowl is drained… your money came from my loosing bet, but all of the money was removed. That example is basically the same principle of how it works in our FX market when a position is closed for profits. 

Loss taking – a bank/institution/trader who closes a loosing trade will also affect the market by causing a drop. The same principle of how it works with profit taking is also how it works with loss taking. The bigger the loss, the bigger the affect it can have on the market. 

Currency reserve moves – as retail traders, we never actually exchange currency, but banks and central banks do, and when these banks shift literal currency reserves or do a literal currency exchange, this can cause big moves in the market. Seasonally speaking, there can be quite a bit of reserve shifting done in the springtime, especially with the Asian countries. Even a mere mention from a central banker or finance minister about possible reserve shifting can cause 200+ pip moves instantaneously. 

Many traders don’t know this, but each central bank has their own FX trade team. The Fed has a 24/6 FX trade center at the New York Federal Reserve in New York City and that trade team is responsible for the Fed’s FX moves. And no, the Fed doesn’t use a retail broker… they are directly linked into the inter-banking system and do their trading that way. This type of set up gives central banks unbridled control to manipulate markets and to price fix, which is something as retail traders we are powerless against. 

Stop hunting/stoploss triggering – stop hunting is something most retail brokers do during thin markets, many times between the end of the NY session and the beginning of the Tokyo session when it’s easiest for them to manipulate prices. Retail traders who place stoplosses are hunted by the broker and the broker can manipulate the price by causing a quick spike up or down to close out entries. The price will almost always return to the point of where the spike took off from. 

Stoploss triggering is a slightly different concept… we saw stoploss triggering in action this week when the EUR/USD dropped from 4815 to 4593 in about a 50-minute timeframe… this is how it works… as the euro kept gaining in value against the dollar since Christmas, traders undoubtedly were putting stoplosses on those positions, and stops were building for weeks on end… and because so many traders use the same 5 or 10 technical indicators, those stoplosses were set on a buttload of so-called “key technical levels.” 

So, as you know, a dude from the ECB got the ball rolling and started the market on euro profit-taking and loss-taking, which sped up the momentum of the euro drop, then the stops started getting triggered, which caused even more losses, then it continued to drop violently, causing more and more stops to get taken out, so on and so forth… it’s almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy for the herd-mentality tech traders who set stoplosses on technical levels like Fibo lines or whatever… they are just pure cannon fodder for those types of moves… 

Fundamental – obviously a shift in the overall fundamentals can cause market drops/market corrections, but this is more of a bigger picture type thing… for example, if current forecasts hold true and stay on track, there will be a fundamental change within the Eurozone this year as growth appears to be slowing and signs are pointing to a considerable slowdown during the second half of 2008. This shift in overall market fundamentals should certainly be more USD supportive against the EUR. 

The banks control this market and they trade on the bigger picture using fundamental analysis of the market. Now here is something very important about drawdown you must understand – with the banks wielding so much control in this market, trading on the bigger picture fundamentals, if they have an open position that goes several hundred pips in the negative, they will let those trades run… banks will not even blink an eye at a trade that might be 500 pips in drawdown if it’s a bigger picture, fundamentally based trade take on a swing basis (i.e. position trade). 

So, as a retail trader, you’re in a market controlled by banks who don’t crap their pants when they go into drawdown. And with proper money and risk management, you shouldn’t be crapping your pants either when you go into drawdown because first of all you’re powerless to do anything about it, and if your trade was taken with a proper game plan, based on sound analysis of the market, the drawdown should give you an even better entry and more ROI when the market goes back the opposite direction. 

Real life drawdown lesson: some of you may remember that back at the end of September (2007) we started telling you to short the cable (GBP/USD) as we felt the U.K.’s fundamentals would turn south, particularly their housing, and that the BOE would start cutting rates within a month or two… back in September we predicted the cable would fall to at least the 1.9800 level, but possibly go as low as 1.9400 in the months to come. 

Well, I took my first cable short at 2.0604. Then the Fed cut rates again, which weakened the dollar even further. Guess what happened to my cable short? It went into over 500 pips of drawdown. Now to most traders, especially tech traders, that would seem like a terrible trade and a trade that would have to be cut for a loss… instead of cutting my trade that was over 500 pips in drawdown, I added another short at 2.1105, and that trade went into drawdown too! So, I’m sitting with two cable shorts, paying interest on them, and they are both in drawdown… 

Instead of panicking, I simply held both shorts with the faith and trust that my overall, long term, big picture fundamental outlook would play out perfectly. Long story short, my 2.0604 was closed at 1.9668, making those 500 pips of drawdown laughable when you look at the net bottom line ROI gained on that trade. And the 2.1105 is still open… 

Conclusion

Hopefully, this info gives you more insight into why the market does what it does… and why it’s so important to have a game plan for the trades you take – a game plan based on sound analysis of the market, not based on emotions… 

I do want to be clear about one thing – I absolutely, positively take losses on trades. I do not close every single trade I ever take for a profit. There is nothing wrong with taking losses in this market, it’s going to happen. When I do take a loss, I have a sound reason for it. 

During the end of November the euro was way up against the dollar, but based on the price action, I saw a change coming, and many of you will remember I took some losses on some euro longs and then went totally net short… and that is when we saw the euro go from 1.4968 down to the 1.4300’s… so, if I see a bigger market move on the horizon, and I’m going the opposite direction of where I think that move is headed, I’ll take my losses, and recoup my losses by going the opposite direction. 

If you have any questions based on this post, please find me in the chat so we can discuss. Or you can post your questions in this thread. 

-FX Insights

August 1, 2008 at 4:41 am Leave a comment

Understanding Drawdown/Market Drops Part I

By FX Insights

Understanding Drawdown/Market Drops Part I

With the EUR/USD making anywhere from 300 to 600 pip swings the past few weeks, this has certainly caused a lot of confusion for newer FX traders, tech traders, and really just about any other trader that doesn’t quite understand the main factors that cause bigger market moves/drawdown/market drops/market corrections. 

For me it’s usually easy to identify why the market did what it did on a daily basis, because we can watch the correlated variables and we can watch price action to get the answers and piece the clues together… but every so often, like we saw last week, the market will make a 300 pip correction, which leaves many traders scratching their heads… 

The other confusing thing to traders is something like we saw last August – it was mid August when all the subprime and credit crunch stuff really hit the fan. Logic would have told you to go heavy buying the euro and go heavy selling the dollar as the news coming out at that time was abysmal for the U.S. economic situation. But over the span of one week saw the euro fall 500 pips against the dollar, defying logic. 

Those of you who were with us last August will remember we kept buying the euro all the way down to the bottom of that mega move, which probably didn’t make any sense at the time, unless of course you were able to see the bigger fundamental picture and have a confident understanding of why we saw such a violent drawdown and market drop. 

One of the toughest aspects for many traders to wrap their brains around in regards to our signal is what to do when it goes into drawdown… it doesn’t matter that 100% of our signal trades have paid-out with full profits because as soon as a signal trade goes into drawdown, the panic sets in, the questioning begins, traders get rattled and squirm, and then they start praying the market will move back up… you should see the panic-stricken emails I get! 

As you know Cisco’s original EUR/USD signal issues “buys” or long positions only. It does not trigger shorts. The signal, fueled by historical and real-time fundamental and price-action data is 100% predictive in nature… it creates a picture of the market and when all the data comes together in perfect alignment, a signal is issued, saying, “in the future, the market will go up at least 20 pips from the price point the signal was triggered.” 

1. So why do some signals go into drawdown? 

Buying – because the signal is predictive, often times the signal will trigger when it sees that the “market” is starting to buy or will start buying the EUR/USD. Quite simply, many times buying the EUR/USD (taking long positions) will cause the market to initially go in the opposite direction. On the retail side, a retail broker will take the opposite side of trades being taken – so, if retail traders are loading up on euro longs, the brokers are loading up on euro shorts to push the market against those trades to either shake them out of the trade or to trigger stoplosses. 

I know this doesn’t make sense, but again, buying many times causes the market to go the opposite direction. The market’s direction will begin to change when a bigger banks and market movers jump in with large entries, which causes the other banks to jump on the bandwagon as they think “maybe the big boys know something we don’t.” At this point you’ve got momentum building, the banks within the inter-banking system will start raising the prices they offer EUR/USD contracts to the brokers, who in turn raise the prices they charge to us on the retail side. As this momentum-based move continues, the banks raise the price on the “ask” and the process continues. 

So, if we look at this from the perspective of the inter-banking system, which are the source for EUR/USD contracts, it would go something like this:

Broker “A” buys a 20 million EUR/USD contract from Bank “A” at the price of 1.4620. Then Broker “A” displays the ask price on their platform at 1.4623 – this is the price you pay to take that trade, meanwhile, a split second later, all contracts offered at the price of 1.4620 from the inter banks were bought up, so the only thing the banks can do is raise the price of the contract, based on supply and demand… so this process continues at break-neck speed… contracts get bought up, price goes up, more contracts keep getting bought, price keeps going up… 

If you’re having trouble picturing this in your mind, think about it like you’re at an auction… a piece of artwork hits the bidding stand and the bidding starts at a certain price. Now, what would make the price of that artwork go up? Offers – which is equivalent to the “ask” in our FX market. If no bidders made offers on that piece of artwork at the auction, obviously the price couldn’t move. But if several hundred bidders kept offering a higher price, the value of that artwork would rise accordingly, but eventually the bidding would stop when the perceived highest value at that point in time has been reached. In this case, as in FX, the “market” decides the price and decides what they’ll pay and what they won’t pay. 

The market drives the price as the momentum builds and the market movers are actively trading. When the price gets so high that it’s no longer an attractive price or perceived to be a value buy, the offers cease, the market stabilizes, and then will either hang out in a range or make a correction back down to a certain level. 

And what will help us determine what kind of correction or retracement to expect? The way I do it is by gauging the speed and degree of the spike or big move, the possible causes for the market volatile activity, the time of the move, the amount of pips it moved, and what the real-time fundamental situation is. 

In conclusion, buying is one of the main reasons a signal or the market in general would go into drawdown, until the upward momentum builds to a point where the market can no longer drop but must start climbing up… of course, we also have to watch correlated variables such as gold, oil, bonds, equities, etc. in conjunction with the spot FX market to help us determine why the market might be going against the prevailing trend.

August 1, 2008 at 4:34 am Leave a comment

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